The hottest textile demand has not started, and PT

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Textile demand has not started, PTA rising space is limited


1 Crude oil may oscillate and strengthen in recovery

2 Textile and clothing export situation is still grim

I. Market Review and forecast

the chart shows the weekly trend of PTA index. (picture source: integrated profit futures)

in January this year, due to the large number of PX shutdown and production reduction in the upstream of PTA, domestic PTA raw materials were not guaranteed and a large number of shutdown and maintenance, PTA rose against the trend out of the impact of the decline in crude oil. With the gradual increase of PX supply after the year, the PTA operating rate increased, but the downstream polyester enterprises had high inventories due to the sales difficulties of downstream weaving mills, which restrained the demand for PTA, leading to the decline of pta2 in the middle of the month. PTA rose again after low-level consolidation, mainly because the continuous rise of crude oil, the high degree of domestic PTA, short-term import delay, and just more domestic production capacity will effectively reduce the generation and maintenance of burrs and burrs, and the demand for restocking of downstream polyester enterprises

Jinan new era Gold Testing Instrument Co., Ltd. is an enterprise with excellent experimental machine technology. At present, PTA is at the upper edge of the oscillation range. As the rigid demand of downstream textile demand has not been significantly started, it will limit the room for PTA to rise. However, if crude oil gradually rises, it is expected to boost PTA to break the oscillation range. If PTA breaks 6384, further test the pressure level of 6600

II. Analysis of influencing factors

1. Crude oil may oscillate and strengthen in the recovery

recently, the Federal Reserve will launch the purchase of US $300billion of long-term US Treasury bonds and expand the current purchase plan of mortgage-related securities. This year, the scale will increase by US $850billion to US $1.45 trillion (trillion). The total value of non-performing assets of banks that the Obama administration plans to buy is as high as $1trillion. All these are conducive to starting the credit market and restoring domestic consumption demand. In addition, the sales data of new and existing homes in the United States rose in February and the decline in retail sales eased, indicating signs of recovery in the U.S. economy. On March 25, an official of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board said that before the U.S. economy starts to recover at the end of 2009 or early next year, the wear and tear is not large. The current recession will continue for a few more months, the economic outlook is still facing risks, and the credit crunch is still the core challenge we are currently facing. In addition, the UK, Europe, Japan and other economic countries have adopted low interest rate monetary policies, which is conducive to the market to restore the credit market and get out of recession

the economic data released by China is mixed, and domestic economists say the economy has bottomed out. Recently, the revenue, tax and profit data of state-owned and state-owned holding enterprises released by the Ministry of finance are again negative, which shows that the impact of the international financial crisis on Chinese enterprises is further deepening, the operation of the real economy is not optimistic, and China still has a long way to go to contain the economic downturn

after the interval oscillation, New York crude oil recently broke through 55, and is expected to further rise to US dollars/ton in the economic recovery

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